Spring 2018


Week 1: January 9                                                            Topic: Intro, orientation, etc.

Abelson: Statistics as Principled Argument

Abelson chapter 1

Leavitt & Christenfeld spoilers paper

Class 1 methods notes

Syllabus

 

Week 2: January 16                                                          Topic: Belief

·         Gilbert (1991). How mental systems believe, American Psychologist, 46, 107-119. 

·         Hasher et al (1977). Frequency and the Conference of Referential Validity, JVVB, 107-112.   http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022537177800121

·         Skurnik, I., Yoon, C., Park, D. C., & Schwarz, N. (2005). How warnings about false claims become recommendations. Journal of Consumer Research31(4), 713-724.

·         Fazio, L. K., Brashier, N. M., Payne, B. K., & Marsh, E. J. (2015). Knowledge does not protect against illusory truth. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 144(5), 993-1002.  http://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2015-38275-001.pdf

More:

·         Slate critique of “backfire” effects of debunking attempts:  https://slate.com/health-and-science/2018/01/weve-been-told-were-living-in-a-post-truth-age-dont-believe-it.html

·         Pennycook et al (2017): Implausibility and Illusory Truth: Prior Exposure Increases Perceived Accuracy of Fake News but Has No Effect on Entirely Implausible Statements.  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2958246

 

Week 3: January 23                                                           Topic: Hypothesis Generation and Testing

·         Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12, 129-140.

·         Darley and Gross (1983). A hypothesis-confirming bias in labeling effects, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44, 20-33.

·         Deighton (1984). The interaction of advertising and evidence. Journal of Consumer Research, 11, 763-770. 

·         Dawson, Gilovich, Regan (2002). Motivated reasoning and performance on the Wason selection task.  PSPB, 28, 1379-1387

·         Klayman, J., & Ha, Y.-W. (1987). Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psychological Review, 94, 211-228.

More:

·         Nickerson, R. S. (1998).  Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises.  Review of General Psychology, 2, 175-220.

·         Hoch (2002).  Product experience is seductive. Journal of Consumer Research, 29, 448-454.

 

Week 4: January 30                                          Topic: Implicit Associations

·         Greenwald, A. G., McGhee, D. E., & Schwartz, J. L. K. (1998). Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: The implicit association test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1464-1480.

·         Arkes & Tetlock (2004). Attributions of implicit prejudice or Would Jesse Jackson 'fail' the Implicit Association Test? Psychological Inquiry, 15, 257-278.

o    and commentaries and response

·         Oswald, F. L., Mitchell, G., Blanton, H., Jaccard, J., & Tetlock, P. E. (2013). Predicting ethnic and racial discrimination: A meta-analysis of IAT criterion studies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 105, 171–192. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0032734 http://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2013-20587-001.pdf

·         Greenwald, A. G., Banaji, M. R., & Nosek, B. A. (2015). Statistically small effects of the Implicit Association Test can have societally large effects. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 108, 553–561. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000016 http://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2014-48911-001.pdf

 

Week 5: February 6                                                          Topic: Introspection, unconscious thought

·         Nisbett and Wilson (1977). Telling more than we can know: verbal reports on mental processes. Psychological Review, 84, 231-259. 

·         Wilson and Schooler (1991). Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 181-192.

·         Dijksterhuis (2004). Think different: The merits of unconscious thought in preference development and decision making, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 87, 586-598. 

·         Payne, J. W., Samper, A., Bettman, J. R., & Luce, M. F. (2008). Boundary conditions on unconscious thought in complex decision making. Psychological Science, 19(11), 1118-1123.

 

Week 6: February 13                                       Topic: Prediction / Heuristics & Biases I

·         Dawes, Faust, Meehl (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment.  Science, 243, 1668-1673. (Chapter 40 in GGK2002)

·         Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 3-20). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (Originally in Science, 1974, 185, 1124-1131.)

·         Gilovich, T., & Griffin, D. (2002). Heuristics and biases: Then and now. (Introduction in GGK2002)

·         Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2002).  The affect heuristic. (Chapter 23 in GGK2002)

More:

·         Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the" planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of personality and social psychology, 67(3), 366.

·         Grove et al (2000)

·         Meehl (1986)

·         Meehl 1989 lectures:  http://meehl.umn.edu/recordings/philosophical-psychology-1989

 

Week 7: February 20                                       Topic: Heuristics & Biases II: Debates

·         Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond heuristics and biases. European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83-115.

·         Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 582-591.

·         Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. Psychological Review, 103, 592-596.

·         Kahneman & Klein (2009).  Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. American Psychologist, 64, 515-526.

 

Some backstory on the TK/Gigerenzer dispute:  https://www.chronicle.com/article/A-Bitter-Ending/238990

 

 

More:

·         Funder, D. C. (1987). Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 75-90.

 

Week 8: February 27                                        Topic: Dual systems, Substitution

·         Kahneman, D. & Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. (Chapter 2 in GGK2002)

·         Kahneman (2003).  A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality, American Psychologist, 58, 697-720.  Also see Kahneman's essay on collaboration

·         Hsee et al. (2003). Medium maximization, JCR, 30, 1-14.

·         Frederick, S. (2005).  Cognitive reflection and decision making, JEconPerspectives, 25-42. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/4134953.pdf

More:

·         Sloman (1996). The empirical case for two systems of reasoning, Psychological Bulletin, 119, 3-22.

 

Week 9: March 6                                                               no class -- SPRING BREAK

 

Week 10: March 13                                                          Topic: Confidence and Probability Judgment

·         Kahneman, D. & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk-taking. Management Science, 39, 17-31.  (Chapter 22 in KT2000)

·         Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24(3), 411-435.

·         Fernbach, P. M., Sloman, S. A., Louis, R. S., & Shube, J. N. (2012). Explanation fiends and foes: How mechanistic detail determines understanding and preference. Journal of Consumer Research39(5), 1115-1131.

Extras:

·         Koehler, Brenner, Griffin (2002).  Calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory. (Chapter 39 in GGK2002)

·         Bar Hillel (1980). The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments, Acta Psychologica, 44, 211-233. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0001691880900463

 

 

Week 11: March 20                                          Topic: Framing and reference-dependence

·         Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. & Thaler, R. (1991). Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and the status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.  (Chapter 8 in KT2000)

·         Weaver, R., & Frederick, S. (2012). A reference price theory of the endowment effect. Journal of Marketing Research49(5), 696-707.

·         Tversky & Kahneman (1991).  Loss aversion in riskless choice: A reference dependent model.  Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1039-1061. (Chapter 7 in KT2000)

More:

·         Thaler (1980).  Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. JEBO, 1, 39-60.

·         Chapman, G. (1998) Similarity and reluctance to trade.  Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 47-58.

·         Plott, C. R., & Zeiler, K. (2007). Exchange asymmetries incorrectly interpreted as evidence of endowment effect theory and prospect theory?. American Economic Review97(4), 1449-1466.

 

Week 12: March 27                                                          Topic:  Framing & Construction of Preference

·         Tversky & Kahneman (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions, Journal of Business, 59, S251-278. (Chapter 12 in KT2000)

·         Slovic (1995).  The construction of preference, American Psychologist, 50, 364-371.  (Chapter 27 in KT2000).

·         Shafir, E., Simonson. I., & Tversky, A. (1993). Reason-based choice. Cognition, 49, 11-36. (Chapter 34 in KT2000)

·         Hsee, C. K., Yang, Y., Li, N., & Shen, L. (2009). Wealth, warmth, and well-being: Whether happiness is relative or absolute depends on whether it is about money, acquisition, or consumption. Journal of Marketing Research46(3), 396-409.

·         Simonson, I. (2008). Will I like a 'medium' pillow? Another look at constructed and inherent preferences, JCP, 18(3), 155-169.

More:

·         Tu, Y., & Hsee, C. K. (2016). Consumer happiness derived from inherent preferences versus learned preferences. Current Opinion in Psychology10, 83-88.

 

Week 13: April 3                                                               Topic: Affective Forecasting

·         Hsee & Hastie (2006). Decision and experience: why don't we choose what makes us happy? Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10, 31-37.

·         Kermer, Driver-Linn, Wilson & Gilbert (2006). Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error, Psychological Science, 17, 649-653.

·         Gilbert, Gill & Wilson (2002). The future is now: Temporal correction in affective forecasting, OBHDP, 88, 430-444.

·         Hsee & Zhang (2004). Distinction bias: Misprediction and mischoice due to joint evaluation. JPSP, 86, 680-695.

More:

·         Kahneman & Thaler (2006). Anomalies: Utility maximization and experienced utility, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20, 221-234.

·         Hsee, C. K. (1999). Value seeking and prediction-decision inconsistency: Why don’t people take what they predict they’ll like the most? Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 6(4), 555-561.

 

 

Week 14: April 10                                                             Topic: Comparisons/Conflict/Context Effects

·         Tversky and Shafir (1992). Choice under conflict: The dynamics of deferred decision, Psychological Science, 3, 358-361

·          Iyengar & Lepper (2000). When choice is demotivating: Can one desire too much of a good thing? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 995-1006.

·         Scheibehenne, B., Greifeneder, R., & Todd, P. (2010). Can there ever be too many options? A meta-analytic review of choice overload. Journal of Consumer Research, 37, 409-424.

·         Hsee & Leclerc (1998). Will products look more attractive when presented separately or together, JCR, 25, 175-186.

More:

·         Schwartz et al. (2002). Maximizing versus satisficing: Happiness is a matter of choice, JPSP, 83, 1178-1197.

·         Huber, Payne & Puto (1982). Adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives: Violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis. JCR, 9, 90-98.

 

Week 15: April 17                                                             Topic: Mental Accounting, Opportunity Costs

·         Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental accounting matters, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 183-206. (Chapter 14 in KT2000).

·         Frederick et al (2009). Opportunity cost neglect, Journal of Consumer Research, 36, 553-561.

·         Spiller (2011). Opportunity cost consideration, Journal of Consumer Research, 38, 595-610.

·         Shah, A. K., Shafir, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2015). Scarcity frames value. Psychological Science26(4), 402-412.

More:

·         Lynch, Spiller, Zauberman

·         Heath & Soll (1996). Mental budgeting and consumer decisions, Journal of Consumer Research, 23, 40-52.

·         Thaler, R. H. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice, Marketing Science, 4, 199-214.

·         Thaler & Johnson (1990). Gambling with the house money and trying to break even: The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice, Management Science, 36, 643-660.

·         Shah, A. K., Mullainathan, S., & Shafir, E. (2012). Some consequences of having too little. Science338(6107), 682-685.

 

 

Week 16: April 24                                                             Discussion of Research Proposals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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