Optimal Price Subsidy Policy for Accelerating the Diffusion of Innovation

Shlomo Kalish and Gary L. Lilien

Due to the risk inherent in dependence on foreign oil, there is a social benefit in aiding the introduction of alternative energy sources into the market place. The Federal government has initiated a number of programs, including price subsidies, to help accelerate the market diffusion of new, alternative energy systems.

We develop a model to investigate analytically the effect of a price subsidy over time on the rate of market diffusion. The model considers word-of-mouth effects and learning curve cost declines. Under a set of conditions that a new technology should be expected to meet before commercialization, the optimal subsidy level is shown to be nonincreasing in time. The related market price is shown to be closely related to the diffusion effect. If there is no such effect, the price to the customer is constant. If there is positive diffusion effect, price increases in time, while if market saturation causes demand to decline over time price decreases in time.

(Price Subsidy; Diffusion of Innovations)