Managerial Decision Making: Mini-assignment #1

Due: March 23 in class (or via email)

Prepare a one-page writeup (400 word max) on either of the following topics:

1. Why do you think the belief in the hot hand in basketball is so strong? Give another example of a potential misperception of randomness that you have encountered that is also strongly-held, but (at least partially) erroneous. What do you think are the best ways to correct or improve these types of erroneous beliefs?

2. Dawes (on pp. 45-47 of the reader) describes a number of objections to the use of linear models for predictions and decision-making, and responds to each of these objections. Do you agree with these objections, or with Dawes’s rejoinder to them? Why?