Mini-assignment #1

Due: November 4 in class (or via email -- if you send email, please send the text of your assignment in the body of the message, not as an attachment.)

Prepare a one-page writeup (400 word max) on either of the following topics:

1. Why do you think the belief in the hot hand in basketball is so strong? Give another example of a potential misperception of randomness that you have encountered that is also strongly-held, but (at least partially) erroneous. What do you think are the best ways to correct or improve these types of erroneous beliefs?

2. Dawes (on pp. 39-41 of the reader) describes a number of objections to the use of linear models for predictions and decision-making, and responds to each of these objections. Do you agree with these objections, or with Dawes’s rejoinder to them? Why? Can you think of other compelling objections to the use of linear models and/or other compelling reasons for using them?